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Signal vs Noise Guide
⚡ Flash — Fire Immediately
Hormuz closure or confirmed transit disruption
Trump confirmed military action (not tweets)
Peace deal confirmed by both sides simultaneously
Iranian state media announcing military retaliation
Fed emergency action or unscheduled rate decision
NFP / CPI major miss or beat vs consensus
IRGC senior commander killed or captured
Head-of-state level escalation confirmed
◈ Context Gate — Check Against Narrative
Iranian officials making diplomatic statements
Trump ultimatums with specific named deadlines
OPEC production policy changes
Named world leaders making war/peace statements
Treasury / yield curve intraday moves above 10bps
○ Digest / Ignore
General market commentary and opinion pieces
Trump optimism without specifics or named counterparty
Repeated known positions restated without new development
Seasonal or technical market analysis