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Signal vs Noise Guide
⚡ Flash — Fire Immediately
A chokepoint closure or confirmed transit disruption (Hormuz, Suez, the Red Sea)
Confirmed military action between states (not social-media posts)
A ceasefire or peace deal confirmed by both sides at once
An emergency or unscheduled central-bank rate decision
A tier-one data release (jobs, inflation) that misses or beats consensus badly
Head-of-state-level escalation confirmed on the record
◈ Context Gate — Check Against Narrative
Officials making diplomatic statements without a signed agreement
Ultimatums or threats tied to a specific named deadline
A shift in energy-supply policy (OPEC output, sanctions, export limits)
A central bank changing its guidance without changing rates
An intraday move in yields or the currency above its usual daily range
○ Digest / Ignore
General market commentary and opinion pieces
Optimistic soundbites without specifics or a named counterparty
Known positions restated with no new development
Seasonal or technical market analysis